Stok kırığı alarmı yapay zeka ile nasıl kurulur, tahmin mi kural mı?

**Short answer:** A stock-out alarm does not stack two jobs. Seasonal and campaign demand is a forecast. “3 left on the shelf” is a rule. Mixing them hides stock-outs. Stok Öngörü keeps both in separate columns; the agent does not invent the threshold. ## What this page is for When an owner says “AI is forecasting stock,” three jobs get mixed. The night Excel balance, a “where is my cargo” chatbot, and the alarm. This page is the third. The [warehouse page](/blog/depo-e-ticaret-lojistiginde-yz-hangi-karari-verir/) is path and consolidation. This page is how a break gets marked. It is not “what is AI technology.” Bağer does not sell a WMS. We bind stock-out and excess-stock alarms to the Stok Öngörü piece inside [YZ functions](https://www.bagertek.com/yz-fonksiyonlari/). ## Forecast separate, rule separate **Forecast.** Season, campaign, Monday, weather. “This SKU runs out next week” lives here. Inputs are past sales, open orders, vitrine campaigns. The model draws a curve. The curve does not replace the three units on the shelf. **Rule.** “3 left on the shelf,” “lead time 12 days,” “minimum 20.” It sits on the spine. The model does not invent that number. If it does, the threshold slides every day and the stock-out hides as “forecast error.” **When they mix.** Purchasing does not see the 3 left because “the model said 40.” Or it ignores the season because “3 left” and dumps excess stock. Two columns, two doors. | Job | Input | Wrong | | --- | --- | --- | | Forecast | Season + campaign + history | Leaving the threshold to the model | | Rule | Units on the shelf + lead time | Treating the forecast as the rule | | Alarm | Where the two columns meet | A bulk SMS “stock is gone” | | Approval | Purchasing / dispatch | The agent cutting a PO | The [manufacturing page](/blog/uretimde-yapay-zeka-once-hangi-isi-alir/) writes cycle and scrap onto a work order. A warehouse break is a separate card; if both run the same day, [multi-agent](/blog/coklu-ajan-orchestration-nedir-tek-chatbot-neden-yetmez/) splits them. ## How the alarm lands on a card An alarm is not mail. An alarm is a Stok Öngörü row: SKU, remaining, lead time, forecast column, rule column, who sees it. Purchasing or the field sees it. The [field agent](/blog/saha-satisinda-ajan-excel-listesini-neden-kapatir/) wants the same balance on the visit — a third Excel does not open. The agent does not cut the order. The approval gate is yours. An “autonomous replenishment” slide turns the wrong SKU into an official move. If the vitrine campaign is cut loose from the stock card, Mağaza Pilot grows the stock-out. Kampanya Motoru looks at the rule column before it says “print a discount.” Both sit in the [YZ functions](https://www.bagertek.com/yz-fonksiyonlari/) vitrine. Getir write-ups say stock runs before the order — a company statement. What you copy is not the widget; it is the “decision before the order” discipline. ## One concrete Monday Wholesale in İkitelli. Friday night, “3 on the shelf” in three SKUs. The model said Monday “season ends, pull 80.” The old way: add both in one row and print 80; three stock out on Monday because the rule is invisible. The real job: the rule column writes “3 left, lead time 10 days,” the forecast column sits apart as “season +40,” purchasing sees both, a person cuts the PO. “Forecast hit rate” alone is not the measure. The measure: was the stock-out cut the same day, did excess stock show before the campaign. Do not write a vendor MAPE down as your saving. ## Where Bağer sits No packaged stock product. You mark Stok Öngörü, the order queue, the vitrine campaign inside [Sistem Yarat](https://www.bagertek.com/sistem-yarat/). The [catalog](https://www.bagertek.com/katalog/) card does not replace a WMS; it binds to one. The approval gate on purchasing is yours. If a delivery or field appointment is born, the hour writes the [Appointment](https://www.bagertek.com/appointment/) calendar; that is not a stock decision. The Mağaza Pilot rule: automation runs, the last approval is yours. High-volume labels sit on Luna, exceptions on Terra. “Let Sol forecast it” hides the rule — [tier page](/blog/gpt-5-6-sol-terra-luna-isletme-hangi-katmani-secer/). ## Melting two columns into one cell A single “suggestion” column in Excel is the most common leak. Model 40, 3 on the shelf, lead time 12 days — when the three become “order 40” in one cell, the rule dies. The agent’s job is to write the three numbers apart. Your job is to decide which one cuts the PO. The second leak is treating the forecast window as the rule. “Runs out next week” is a 7-day curve. “3 on the shelf” is this morning’s balance. The curve does not cancel this morning. A [1 million token](/blog/1-milyon-token-baglam-arsiv-excel-pdf-ne-yapar/) archive feeds the curve; it does not count the shelf. The count sits on the card through the WMS or [computer use](/blog/computer-use-nedir-ekran-uzerinden-is-nasil-yurutulur/). The third leak is closing a stock-out as “forecast error.” Error is the curve’s job. The break is the rule’s job. Forgiving both in one sentence is stocking out the same SKU tomorrow. A robot moves a tote; it does not write the break. The [SDF](/blog/yazilim-tanimli-fabrika-2026-robot-tek-basina-yeter-mi/) lesson holds here too: a move with no card is a demo. ## Common mistakes - Mixing forecast and threshold rule. - Leaving the threshold to the model. - Letting the agent cut a PO. - An alarm with no balance. - Cutting the vitrine campaign loose from the stock card. - Writing a vendor MAPE down as your saving. ## August 2026 note Demand models and RaaS announcements slide. This page is the two columns, not a hit-rate table. On publish day look at your own threshold. ## Next step Pick the card the rule and forecast columns will land on, as Stok Öngörü inside [YZ functions](https://www.bagertek.com/yz-fonksiyonlari/); the spine is written through [Sistem Yarat](https://www.bagertek.com/sistem-yarat/). - [Warehouse and e-commerce logistics](/blog/depo-e-ticaret-lojistiginde-yz-hangi-karari-verir/) - [Which job manufacturing AI takes first](/blog/uretimde-yapay-zeka-once-hangi-isi-alir/) - [Multi-agent orchestration](/blog/coklu-ajan-orchestration-nedir-tek-chatbot-neden-yetmez/)